������ý

On April 9, hurricane researchers at  their first outlook, predicting a slightly quieter hurricane season with 13 named storms. Of the more than a dozen storms, CSU hurricane researchers predicted six will become hurricanes and two of these hurricanes will become Category 3 or higher hurricanes. These numbers are below the long-term seasonal average of 14, seven, and three, respectively.

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

a moderate/strong El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season. El Niño is a recurring climate pattern characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The weather pattern tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These winds result in increased vertical wind shear which is unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification. Moderate to strong El Niño events generally have a stronger tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear impact than weak El Niño events. In turn, the researchers forecasted a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.

The the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026:

• 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 15% for the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 35% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

Additional CSU forecast updates will be released on June 10, July 8, and August 5. The researchers note that their initial April forecast is historically less accurate compared to those that follow in each season due to the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October. The entire Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The most significant hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in Jamaica, resulting in nearly US$9 billion in damage and causing 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.